Trump’s “self-mutilation” asking price is to kill one thousand and damage one thousand.
On May 12, local time, Kurdlow, the director of the White House National Economic Council, expressed a different view of the tariffs from President Trump in the Fox news program "Fox News Sunday."
Trump claimed that the US imposed tariff pressure and paid only for China.However, Kudlow does not think so.
He admits that Trump's approach will increase the tax burden on US companies, which are usually passed on to consumers.He added that the economies of both countries will feel the impact of tariffs, "both sides will pay for this."
However, he argues that tariffs will have a "very modest" effect on US economic growth and that tariffs have increased customs revenues.
On the 11th, Professor Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, published an interview on July 7 last year through the public number “Cheng Rong”.He analyzed that the trade interests of China and the United States are the same. This account is to kill one thousand, and to damage one thousand, not to kill one thousand, and to lose eight hundred.
He pointed out that Trump's account was wrong at the beginning.
In 2017, there was a $530 billion trade in goods between China and the United States. According to them, the United States only sold China’s $150 billion worth of goods, so they felt that they were losing money. They always said that China earned more than US$376 billion. Therefore, I feel that the loss of China in trade wars will be even greater.
However, the actual situation is that the United States does sell directly to China’s 150 billion US dollars of goods. However, through Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and other regions, the United States has indirectly sold 100 billion US dollars of goods in the form of entrepot trade. This part of Trang Pu did not count in.
The goods that China sold to the United States through Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and other regions were counted in, and the double standards were adopted. The reason is still very formal - "the principle of origin".
Only the goods of origin in China are counted, including those sold through Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and other regions. He regards these places as only transit stations; and the goods of origin in the United States, he puts Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and other regions are regarded as the "intermediary" who earns the difference. If he sells it to him, he will not care.
So this statistical account, from the beginning of the United States, has given itself less than 100 billion (US dollars).
Jin Canrong also pointed out that China has three "trumps": the first is a total ban on the export of rare earths to the United States; the other is the US Treasury bonds; the last "big ace" is the US company's market in China.
The article on the Observer website and the associate professor of the Department of International Politics at Fudan University, Shen Yi, also pointed out that Trump is a "self-mutilation" asking price.The main reason is that Trump's judgment is not far from the economic law and reality, but basically the same.
Trump mistakes the 21st century world as the 19th century planet.
He believes that the United States tax on China has led to an absolute increase in US earnings, and China’s earnings have been absolutely impaired. It is the logic of 19th century mercantilism applied to the 21st century.According to Trump's Twitter, the scenario described is as follows: China's exports to the United States are all produced by Chinese companies, and have nothing to do with US companies or investments; the tariffs imposed by the United States are all made up of Chinese goods manufacturers, and The exporters will not be passed on to the consumers in the United States; all of China’s exports to the United States are end products, which basically do not involve middleware; even if American companies import related middleware from China for processing, these enterprises can hardly be Redistribute the supply chain with loss.
The backward knowledge structure, the distorted decision-making team, and the personality psychological characteristics with significant defects have led Trump to use this seemingly fierce and in fact the "self-injury asking price" that seriously damages the US mid- and long-term interests. A short-term assault that is clearly not sustainable, and seeks to achieve a decisive return in the window period before the real cost exposure: overwhelming China psychologically and spiritually, forcing China to make major concessions.
Faced with the pressure from the United States, China certainly cannot be completely sinless. While correctly understanding and grasping the internal defects of the US asking price, it is necessary to accurately understand and understand the real pressure China faces, avoiding the "no war and falling" and "panic." It is China’s top priority to cope with the unsatisfactory response such as “missing” and “passive waiting” to win the staged victory of the Sino-US strategic game.
Source: Global Times